Brexit (a portmanteau o "Breetish" an "exit") wis the widrawal o the Unitit Kinrick (UK) frae the European Union (EU). Follaein a referendum held on 23 Juin 2016 in that 51.9 per cent o thae votin supportit leavin the EU, the Govrenment invoked Airticle 50 o the Treaty on European Union, stairtin a twa-year process that wis due tae conclude wi the UK's exit on 29 Mairch 2019 – a deidline that haes syne been extendit tae 31 October 2019.
Widrawal frae the EU haes been advocatit bi baith left-weeng an richt-weeng Eurosceptics, while pro-Europeanists, that an aw span the poleetical spectrum, hae advocatit conteena'd membership an mainteenin the customs union an single mercat. The UK jynt the European Communities (EC) in 1973 unner the Conservative govrenment o Edward Heath, wi conteena'd membership endorsed bi a referendum in 1975. In the 1970s an 1980s, widrawal frae the EC wis advocatit mainly bi the poleetical left, wi the Labour Pairty's 1983 election manifesto advocatin full widrawal. Frae the 1990s, opposeetion tae faur European integration cam mainly frae the richt, an diveesions within the Conservative Pairty led tae rebellion ower the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. The growthe o the UK Unthirldom Pairty (UKIP) in the early 2010s an the influence o the cross-pairty People's Pledge campaign hae been descrived as influential in bringin aboot a referendum. The Conservative Prime Meenister, David Cameron, plichtit in the campaign for the 2015 UK General Election tae haud a new referendum—a plicht that he fulfilled in 2016 follaein pressur frae the Eurosceptic weeng o his pairty. Cameron, that had campaigned tae remeen, resigned efter the result an wis succeedit bi Theresa May, his umwhile Hame Secretar. She cried a snap general election less than a year later, but lost her oweraw majority. Her minority govrenment is supportit in key votes bi the Democratic Unionist Pairty.
On 29 Mairch 2017, the Govrenment o the Unitit Kinrick invoked Airticle 50 o the Treaty on European Union. May annoonced the govrenment's intention nae tae seek permanent membership o the European single mercat or the EU customs union efter leavin the EU an promised tae repeal the European Communities Act o 1972 an incorporate exeestin European Union law intae UK domestic law. Negotiations wi the EU offeecially stairtit in Juin 2017. In November 2018, the Draft Withdrawal Agreement, negotiatit atween the UK Govrenment an the EU, wis published. The Hoose o Commons votit against the greement bi a mairgin o 432 tae 202 (the lairgest pairlamentar defeat in history for a sittin UK govrenment) on 15 Januar 2019, an again on 12 Mairch wi a mairgin o 391 tae 242 against the greement. On 14 Mairch 2019, the Hoose o Commons votit for the Prime Meenister, Theresa May, tae ask the EU for sic an extension o the period alloued for the negotiation. Members frae athort the Hoose o Commons rejectit the greement wi the leadership o the Labour Party statin in public debates in the Hoose o Commons that ony deal maun maintain a customs union an single mercat, an wi a lairge percentage o its members rejectin the Erse backstap as it is currently draftit in the EU widrawal greement. Opponents o the EU Withdrawal Agreement citit concerns that the greement as draftit coud plunge Northren Ireland intae a conflict an spark a return o The Tribbles as a result o Brexit.
The braid consensus amang economists is that Brexit will likely reduce the UK's real per capita income in the medium term an lang term, an that the Brexit referendum itsel damaged the economy.[lower-alpha 1] Studies on effects syne the referendum shaw a reduction in GDP, tred an investment, as weel as hoosehaud losses frae increased inflation. Brexit is likely tae reduce immigration frae European Economic Aurie (EEA) kintras tae the UK, an poses challenges for UK heicher eddication an academic resairch. As o Mairch 2019[update], the size o the "divorce bill"—the UK's inheritance o existin EU tred greements—an relations wi Ireland an ither EU member states remeens uncertaint. The precise impact on the UK depends on whither the process will be a "haurd" or "saft" Brexit. Brexit offeecially teuk place on 31 Januar 2020.
Notes[eedit | eedit soorce]
References[eedit | eedit soorce]
- Tusk, Donald (10 April 2019). "EU27/UK have agreed a flexible extension until 31 October. This means additional six months for the UK to find the best possible solution". @eucopresident (in Inglis). Twitter. Retrieved 11 April 2019.
- Goodman, Peter S. (20 May 2016). "'Brexit,' a Feel-Good Vote That Could Sink Britain's Economy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
finding economists who say they believe that a Brexit will spur the British economy is like looking for a doctor who thinks forswearing vegetables is the key to a long life
- Sampson, Thomas (2017). "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration". Journal of Economic Perspectives. 31 (4): 163–184. doi:10.1257/jep.31.4.163. ISSN 0895-3309.
The results I summarize in this section focus on long-run effects and have a forecast horizon of 10 or more years after Brexit occurs. Less is known about the likely dynamics of the transition process or the extent to which economic uncertainty and anticipation effects will impact the economies of the United Kingdom or the European Union in advance of Brexit.
- Baldwin, Richard (31 July 2016). "Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists". VoxEU.org. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
On 23 June 2016, 52% of British voters decided that being the first country ever to leave the EU was a price worth paying for 'taking back control', despite advice from economists clearly showing that Brexit would make the UK 'permanently poorer' (HM Treasury 2016). The extent of agreement among economists on the costs of Brexit was extraordinary: forecast after forecast supported similar conclusions (which have so far proved accurate in the aftermath of the Brexit vote).
- "Brexit survey". igmchicago.org. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
- "Brexit survey II". igmchicago.org. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
- Sodha, Sonia; Helm, Toby; Inman, Phillip (28 May 2016). "Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron". The Observer. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
- "Most economists still pessimistic about effects of Brexit". Financial Times. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
- "Subscribe to read". Financial Times. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
Unlike the short-term effects of Brexit, which have been better than most had predicted, most economists say the ultimate impact of leaving the EU still appears likely to be more negative than positive. But the one thing almost all agree upon is that no one will know how big the effects are for some time.
- Wren-Lewis, Simon. "Why is the academic consensus on the cost of Brexit being ignored?". The Conversation (in Inglis). Retrieved 22 November 2017.
- "Brexit to Hit Jobs, Wealth and Output for Years to Come, Economists Say". Bloomberg L.P. 22 February 2017. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
The U.K. economy may be paying for Brexit for a long time to come... It won't mean Armageddon, but the broad consensus among economists—whose predictions about the initial fallout were largely too pessimistic—is for a prolonged effect that will ultimately diminish output, jobs and wealth to some degree.
- Johnson, Paul; Mitchell, Ian (1 March 2017). "The Brexit vote, economics, and economic policy". Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 33 (suppl_1): S12–S21. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grx017. ISSN 0266-903X.
- "Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy – but one disagrees". The Economist (in Inglis). Retrieved 22 November 2017.
- "This is the real reason the UK's economic forecasts look so bad". The Independent. 23 November 2017. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
One thing economists do generally agree on is that leaving the European Union and putting new trade barriers between Britain and our largest and closest trading partners is extremely unlikely to boost UK productivity growth—and is far more likely to slow it